Well, folks, it’s finally here: on Friday, North Carolina will be the first state in the nation to begin mailing absentee ballots to voters for the 2020 election. Polling has shown that a majority of Americans plan to vote early this year, either in person or by mail. So, with that in mind, here are a few resources you might find helpful:

  • FiveThirtyEight produced a handy 50-state guide on how to vote this November. It was compiled by an old colleague of mine and is very thorough. Feel free to share this widely!

And can the answer tell us something about Democrats’ electoral fortunes in the state moving forward?

On Tuesday night, Missouri became the latest state in which voters expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act after their Republican-controlled state government refused to do so. For those who follow Missouri politics, the map at the end of the night showing support versus opposition to the measure — Amendment 2 — looked very familiar: the liberal option on the ballot (in this case, a ‘yes’ vote) received majority support from counties near the state’s major population hubs of Kansas City, St. …


So, we’ve finally arrived at this point, which many of us have been anticipating (dreading?) for a long time. After a recent series of bad headlines, and with poll after poll showing him getting crushed by Joe Biden, the president of the United States is now threatening to postpone the country’s general election and ramping up baseless accusations that allowing people to vote by mail this fall will lead to rampant voter fraud:


And why that doesn’t necessarily mean the former vice president isn’t still in good shape.

There have been a host of polls over the past couple of weeks, both nationally and in various states, showing Joe Biden opening up a massive lead over Trump — sometimes by double-digit margins. Couple that with Trump’s abysmal approval ratings recently and some people may be tempted to conclude that Trump’s political obituary for November can be written right now. However, things will almost certainly change between now and Election Day, and it’s wise to keep some perspective.

There’s a very good chance that this polling surge for Biden is temporary, and that Trump’s support levels will tick back…


(Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images)

After nearly two years, Friday afternoon brought to a conclusion an investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election — and the Trump campaign’s possible involvement in that affair — when special counsel Robert Mueller delivered his investigative report to Attorney General William Barr. The report has not yet been made public, so it is impossible to draw any conclusions about its content. However, there is a lot we do know, and a lot of information that can help prepare the public for the report’s (hopefully) eventual release.

Some background

If you haven’t closely followed the investigation and need to get…


There’s a reason it has only been attempted twice before.

(Photo: Detroit Metro Times)

As the new Democratic majority takes over the House of Representatives, it is already clear there will be a tug-of-war between the party’s progressive wing and its more moderate faction over, among other things, the issue of impeachment. On Day One of the new Congress, Rep. Brad Sherman introduced the first of what would be several articles of impeachment. Later in the evening, this happened:

Previously, Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said that she, too, supports impeachment.

To some extent, Democrats of all stripes should look forward to seeing how these incoming progressive freshmen can help the party be bolder and…


A voter casts his ballot in California’s midterm primaries (Photo: New York Times)

For you election + sports nerds:

Elections

California’s electoral experiment may produce bad outcomes for both parties.

Here’s how it works:

In the old days, each party nominated a candidate — at a party convention or in a primary — with the idea that a Republican and a Democrat would face off in the November election. In theory, that would present voters with a choice of two governing philosophies.

But critics — including Arnold Schwarzenegger, who was the Republican governor at the time — argued that the system was producing ideologically extreme candidates who were forced to appeal to the most fervent wings of their party, and that was leading…


Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian interference in our election and team Trump’s possible involvement has been moving along for a little over a year now. On a seemingly daily basis, we’ve been exposed to new developments, often-complex plot points, and sometimes-tangential sub-stories. It’s easy to feel so overwhelmed by all of this that tuning out altogether feels like the easiest course of action.

But we cannot afford to do that — not on this story. So, for a quick recap of why this investigation is so important: a hostile foreign power (Russia) committed an act of political warfare…


Messaging a Democratic Agenda for the 2018 Midterms

L to R: Texas U.S. Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke (photo: Annie Mulligan), KY-06 candidate Amy McGrath (photo: Patrick T. Fallon/Bloomberg via Getty Images), TX-07 candidate Lizzie Fletcher

Before delving into this, a quick disclaimer: I’m basically in agreement with those voices that do not believe Democrats need some kind of unified, national, top-down message ahead of this year’s midterm elections. Given the structural barriers to taking back both houses of Congress — and, thus, the need to run a diverse slate of candidates — it’s wiser to let each individual tailor campaign messages to their specific states and districts. Still, there are a number of issues that most Democratic candidates can and should talk about on the campaign trail.

Also, because state-level races such as governor and…


Photo: Ruckus Networks

Elections

A major new study details how demographic shifts could impact the 2020 presidential election.

A new bipartisan report runs through some of the scenarios that would lead to Trump’s reelection or a win for Democrats. The States of Change report, authored by a long list of groups including the Center for American Progress and the Bipartisan Policy Center, suggests there is a long-term structural advantage for the Democratic Party but a much more complicated short-term picture.

Sitting behind the report and the U.S. [electorate in] general is one immutable fact: Change. …

Michael Baharaeen

Political analyst focused on electoral politics, Congress, demographic trends, public polling, and political history.

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