Incoming progressives should be mindful of just how hard it is to impeach a president.
There’s a reason it has only been attempted twice before.
As the new Democratic majority takes over the House of Representatives, it is already clear there will be a tug-of-war between the party’s progressive wing and its more moderate faction over, among other things, the issue of impeachment. On Day One of the new Congress, Rep. Brad Sherman introduced the first of what would be several articles of impeachment. Later in the evening, this happened:
Previously, Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said that she, too, supports impeachment.
To some extent, Democrats of all stripes should look forward to seeing how these incoming progressive freshmen can help the party be bolder and more innovative in some policy areas than it has been historically. There is also a legitimate worry, however, that many of them (as exemplified by Tlaib’s soundbite) may not have much sense of strategy or long-term vision, which could lead them to back their party into corners without a plan for getting them out.
Many of the newcomers are younger and may not remember much about the 1998 Clinton impeachment proceedings or the resulting political impact. The American public decided the Republican impeachment efforts constituted such overreach, they responded by giving the president’s party (Democrats) more seats in Congress in the subsequent midterm election — a phenomenon that has only happened three times in the past 100 years.
Consider also that many of the freshmen who helped Democrats win their House majority hail from swing districts — some of which Trump even carried in 2016. Moreover, it appears as though the party will include just as many moderate members as progressive members in the new Congress. How helpful will it be to the moderate wing to have their progressive colleagues loudly advocating for impeachment on their first day in office?
And finally, consider what the public thinks about impeachment. According to a Harvard/Politico survey released just this week, impeaching Trump is quite low on the public’s list of priorities. Per a Brookings Institution analysis of the poll:
Of 21 possible priorities for the new Congress, impeaching the president was tied for last, with only 38 percent of Americans deeming it “extremely important.”
They continue:
This poll is anything but an outlier. Exit polls from the midterm elections found 41 percent of voters in favor of impeachment, with 57 percent opposed. Support among Independent voters stood at 34 percent. A Monmouth survey released on November 14 showed 36 percent in favor, 59 percent opposed, with Independents splitting 26–67 and moderates 42–52. A month later, CNN found 42 percent of registered voters in favor of impeachment, 51 percent opposed. Only 36 percent of Independents and 44 percent of moderates supported this move.
In this case, if Democrats move forward without a coherent strategy and end up overreaching (as Republicans did in 1998), it could very well turn off independent voters whose support the party needs to prevent Trump from winning a second term.
It may sound obvious, but if you want to accomplish anything through political means, strategy and optics are just as important as beliefs and convictions (if not more so). You may be right on a given issue, but if you are incapable of pursuing your ends prudently, not only are you unlikely to get what you want — your efforts may backfire. In this case, if Democrats move forward without a coherent strategy and end up overreaching (as Republicans did in 1998), it could very well turn off independent voters whose support the party needs to prevent Trump from winning a second term.
Still, although the actions we saw on Day One may foreshadow more intraparty fissures in the future, Democrats head into the next two years with veteran at the helm — Nancy Pelosi. Her experience and legislative acumen are second to none, and she has a much broader view of the political landscape than many in the progressive wing of the party. This is not to say she would never consider impeachment; she noted this week that although impeaching a president is a divisive act, it is not out of the question with Trump (though she argued the party should not do so just for political reasons). However, if she does ultimately decide to take that leap, her approach is sure to be methodical and strategic — not reactionary and blind.
As the old aphorism goes, “When you strike at the king, you must slay him.” Brookings notes that while Republicans in 1998 bit off more than they could chew by pursuing impeachment against Clinton,
in 1974…Democrats held their fire — and Republicans continued to support Richard Nixon — until the release of the Oval Office tapes revealed the smoking gun. Within days, Republican support for President Nixon withered. Faced with certain conviction in the Senate, the president chose to resign, to the relief of a large majority of the people.
The Trump administration has done some uniquely terrible things with its power, and it should (and will) be held accountable for them by the incoming Democratic House majority. But impeachment is a powerful tool that should be exercised with extreme caution and airtight justification — not cavalierly tossed around as a rallying cry.
