What to make of Friday’s Mueller news
After nearly two years, Friday afternoon brought to a conclusion an investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election — and the Trump campaign’s possible involvement in that affair — when special counsel Robert Mueller delivered his investigative report to Attorney General William Barr. The report has not yet been made public, so it is impossible to draw any conclusions about its content. However, there is a lot we do know, and a lot of information that can help prepare the public for the report’s (hopefully) eventual release.
Some background
If you haven’t closely followed the investigation and need to get up to speed — or even if you have — Vox has a helpful primer that answers some basic questions. The main point:
Mueller has been investigating two main topics, often shorthanded as “collusion” (whether Trump associates were involved with Russian interference in the 2016 campaign) — and “obstruction” (whether Trump attempted to block or interfere with investigations).
What happened Friday?
Special counsel Robert S. Mueller III submitted a long-awaited report to Attorney General William P. Barr on Friday, marking the end of his investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election and possible obstruction of justice by President Trump.
The submission of Mueller’s report ends his closely watched inquiry — a case that has engulfed the Trump administration since its inception, leading to criminal charges against 34 people, including six former Trump associates and advisers.
No details of Mueller’s findings have been released, but [Attorney General] Barr said he may be able to brief congressional leaders on the report as soon as this weekend.
There will be no more indictments now that the probe is concluded.
Political Wire’s Taegan Goddard sums up what we know so far:
- The Mueller investigation is now finished.
- Mueller isn’t recommending any additional indictments, including any sealed indictments.
- Trump never sat for an interview but did answer written questions.
- The Justice Department never overruled any requests from Mueller.
- Some aspects of the investigation will remain active and be overseen by other areas of the Justice Department.
The Atlantic’s Natasha Bertrand recaps where things stand on the key questions of Russian conspiracy, obstruction of justice, and Kompromat.
What happens next?
Now it’s up to the attorney general to determine what parts of Mueller’s confidential report (if any) will be publicly released, beyond the required summary that is being sent to Congress. During his confirmation hearings, Barr was cagey about whether he’d commit to making Mueller’s findings public. In today’s letter, he said he would determine what he can release “consistent with the law” and Justice Department policies. But House Democrats have already drawn battle lines by demanding that the full report be released to Congress and the public.
If releasing the full report is not what Barr wants or feels he’s able to do, though, the process of extracting the report from the Department of Justice will likely be long and laborious, potentially involving subpoenas and even a showdown over executive privilege.
Even as the special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III, submitted his confidential report to the Justice Department on Friday, federal and state prosecutors are pursuing about a dozen other investigations that largely grew out of his work, all but ensuring that a legal threat will continue to loom over the Trump presidency.
House Democrats are huddling Saturday to strategize how to force special counsel Robert Mueller’s potentially explosive findings into the open — a possible drag-out legal fight that could consume Washington for months.
More perspectives
The president should wait before popping the champagne corks over this and tweeting in triumph. Yes, in the best-case scenario for the president, Mueller is not proceeding further because he lacks the evidence to do so. But even this possibility contains multitudes: everything from what the president calls ‘NO COLLUSION!’ to evidence that falls just short of adequate to prove criminal conduct to a reasonable jury beyond a reasonable doubt — evidence that could still prove devastating if the conduct at issue becomes public.
There are other possibilities as well. It’s possible, for example, that Mueller is not proceeding against certain defendants other than the president because he has referred them to other prosecutorial offices; some of these referrals are already public, and it’s reasonable to expect there may be other referrals too. In this iteration, what is ending here is not the investigation, merely the portion of the investigation Mueller chose to retain for himself. It’s possible also that Mueller is finished because he has determined that while the evidence would support a prosecution of the president, he is bound by the Justice Department’s long-standing position that the president is not amenable to criminal process.
People lie to hide the truth. They lie to hide crimes. And while everyone is dying for a peek at Robert Mueller’s bombshell report to see if he says any crimes were committed by the Trump campaign in 2016, the truth is actually already out there, hidden in plain sight.
Mr. Mueller’s report may never go public, but we don’t need a peek at the recommendations he delivered on Friday to Attorney General William Barr to credibly assess that something unethical and likely illegal went on in 2016. The repeated lies told by Trump campaign staff members — lies about their connections to Russian figures — already spin a grand tale of conspiracy and deceit. And it’s a tale so suspect and sordid that President Trump and his associates felt the need to lie to hide it from law enforcement.
- Mother Jones breaks down how publicly available information already makes a case for collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign
- Jonathan Chait analyzes how, even if it is found the two sides did not collude, Trump has been corruptly influenced by Russia
- The Brookings Institution lays out the case for obstruction of justice charges against Trump
